The New Republican Primary Rules Make It Possible for the Republican Establishment To Steal the Nomination From a Candidate They Don’t Like

From:  End of the American Dream


"New Republican primary rules are going to make it basically impossible for any candidate to wrap up the Republican nomination very early in 2012. In fact, the new Republican primary rules make a "brokered convention" much more likely and they also make it much more likely that the Republican establishment will attempt to steal the nomination away from a candidate that they do not like. How exactly they would do this will be discussed later in the article. The key is that most Republican primaries and caucuses will now allocate delegates using a proportional system rather than a "winner take all" system. Back in 2008, John McCain did very well in early "winner take all" primaries and wrapped up the Republican nomination very, very quickly. Nothing like that will happen in 2012. In fact, if the field remains crowded it is going to be very difficult for any candidate to accumulate more than 50 percent of the delegates by the time the Republican national convention rolls around. As will be discussed later on in this article, that would move the power into the hands of the Republican establishment.

First, let's try to understand what these new changes are. Sadly, it appears that even most Republican voters do not understand how things have changed.

The following rule was adopted by the Republican Party back in August 2010....

"Any presidential primary, caucus, convention, or other meeting held for the purpose of selecting delegates to the national convention which occurs prior to the first day of April in the year in which the national convention is held, shall provide for the allocation of delegates on a proportional basis."

This new rule means that delegates will be apportioned to candidates on a proportional basis in Republican caucuses and primaries that are conducted prior to April 1st. One notable exception to this rule is Florida, which got approval to remain a "winner take all" state. So Florida will be very important.

In addition, all of the states that are now using "proportional representation" do not allocate delegates the exact same way. Each state has slightly different election rules.

But in general, in most of the primaries and caucuses held before April 1st, delegates will be awarded to multiple candidates instead of to just a single candidate.

Therefore, it now becomes much less important who wins each individual state. Instead, the key is how many delegates a candidate picks up in each state.

The Republicans decided to go to such a system after watching the extended battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in 2008. The following comes from a recent Huffington Post article....

Don't look for a quick winner in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. After watching Democrats successfully ride their historic primary battle between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama all the way to the White House in 2008, the Republicans quietly adopted a new rule designed to extend their nominating process this time around.

The rule limits the ability of candidates to win large numbers of delegates in early primaries and caucuses – those held before April – because delegates must be awarded in proportion to the votes a candidate receives.

If proportional representation would have been used back in 2008, the Republican race would have looked much different. John McCain would have had to battle much, much longer to secure the nomination.

The following comes from fairvote.org....

Consider the 2008 Republican nomination contest. John McCain secured an essentially insurmountable lead on February 5, Super Tuesday. Sen. McCain had become the frontrunner heading into Super Tuesday by winning three key primaries: South Carolina, Florida and New Hampshire. His average percentage share in those contests was just 34.5%, and he never even broke the 40% threshold. Even on February 5, he won only 3 states with a majority of the vote.

Although McCain on Super Tuesday did not capture a majority of the popular vote (and did not, in fact, ever reach a majority of 50% of votes cast in primaries), McCain’s disproportionately large delegate count forced his leading opponents to drop out of the race.

Some even believe that an extended three way race between McCain, Romney and Huckabee could have resulted in a "brokered convention" back in 2008. The following analysis comes from a recent Daily Kos article....

In 2008, the Republican primary contest was decided quickly and relatively painlessly only because there were winner-take-all rules at the time. Those rules have been changed. If you take the current proportional delegate rules and apply them to the results of the 2008 race through Feb 5th, when the race was still heavily contested, something very surprising happens. John McCain, who took a commanding lead under the winner-take-all rules in effect in most states, instead ends up behind Mitt Romney by eight delegates (with a confidence factor of plus or minus 5 delegates.) The standings, with more than half the delegates decided, would have been as follows.

Romney 439McCain 431Huckabee 247Other 114

This year, there will be very few "winner take all" primaries, and most of those will be at the end of the schedule.

This is going to encourage candidates to stick around longer. The more delegates that a candidate can accumulate, the more leverage that candidate will have moving into the convention.

Right now, the Republican field is very crowded and nobody has been able to take a commanding lead in the polls. The possibility that no candidate will be able to accumulate more than 50% of the delegates by the time of the Republican convention seems to grow by the day.

If no candidate has won more than 50% of the delegates by convention time, then it is likely that we will have a brokered convention.

So exactly what is a brokered convention?

The following is how Wikipedia defines a brokered convention....:

A brokered convention is a situation in United States politics in which there are not enough delegates 'won' during the presidential primary and caucus elections for a single candidate to have a pre-existing majority, during the first official vote for a political party's presidential-candidate at its nominating convention.
Once the first ballot, or vote, has occurred, and no candidate has a majority of the delegates' votes, the convention is then considered brokered; thereafter, the nomination is decided through a process of alternating political horse-trading, and additional re-votes. In this circumstance, all regular delegates (who, previously, were pledged to the candidate who had won their respective state's primary or caucus election) are "released," and are able to switch their allegiance to a different candidate before the next round of balloting. It is hoped that this 'freedom' will result in a re-vote resulting in a clear majority of delegates for one candidate.

Okay, so how does all of this make it possible for the Republican establishment to steal the nomination from a candidate that they do not like?

It is actually very easy.

If the Republican establishment does not like the candidate that is leading in the delegate count, they can try to shoot for a brokered convention.

They can do this by encouraging candidates to stay in the race longer in order to water down the vote.

They can also do this by encouraging late entrants into the race in order to steal some delegates away.

In fact, there are persistent rumors that the Republican establishment is already lining up late entrants to enter the race. The following comes from a recent Wall Street Journal article....

Efforts are underway by some wealthy Republican donors and a group of conservative leaders to investigate whether a new Republican candidate could still get into the presidential race. The talk is still preliminary and somewhat wishful, but it reflects dissatisfaction with the two leading candidates, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney.
Conservative leaders are looking into whether it is feasible for a dark horse to get on the ballot in select states. The deadline to qualifying for the ballot has passed in Florida, South Carolina, Missouri, and New Hampshire. But a candidate could still get on the ballot in states like Tennessee, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Michigan and Texas. At the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses, voters write in their choice, so there is no formal filing deadline.
The chatter about potential new entrants include former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, businessman Donald Trump, Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin and South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint.

If a candidate that the Republican establishment does not like gets out to an early lead, the Republican establishment will move heaven and earth in an attempt to keep that candidate from accumulating 50 percent of the delegates.

The goal would be to cause a brokered convention which would enable the Republican establishment to hand pick whatever candidate that they want.

In fact, if a brokered convention happens the Republicans could end up selecting someone that is not even running.

It certainly does not sound very American, but this is a very real possibility.

The Republican establishment is only going to go along with the will of the people as long as they pick the "correct" candidate.

         
That is why any anti-establishment candidate is going to be facing a huge uphill battle this year. It would be way too easy for the Republican establishment to force a brokered convention.

Any candidate that wants to avoid a brokered convention is going to have to accumulate more than 50 percent of the delegates before the convention, and that is going to be very difficult to do under the new rules."

~Lordhawke

What has become of America?

Good Morning;  I found this at "Unfiltered News", a site produced by G. Edward Griffin, author of the book: "The Creature from Jekyll Island".  It seems to describe the "norm" in America today.


WHAT HAS AMERICA BECOME? 2011 Nov 14 from Ken Huber, Tawas City, Michigan
Has America become the land of the special interest and home of the double standard?

Let’s see, if we lie to the Congress it’s a felony, and if the Congress lies to us it’s just politics; if we dislike a black person we’re racist, and if blacks dislike other races, it’s their First Amendment right; the government spends millions to rehabilitate criminals and they do almost nothing for the victims; in public schools you can teach that homosexuality is OK but you better not use the word God in the process; you can kill an unborn child, but it is wrong to execute a mass murderer; we don’t burn books in America, we now rewrite them; we got rid of the threat from communists and socialists by renaming them progressives; we are unable to close our border with Mexico, but have no problem protecting the 38th parallel in Korea; if you protest against president Obama’s policies you’re a terrorist, but if you burned an American flag, it’s your first-Amendment right.

You can have pornography on your TV or internet, but you better not have a Nativity Scene in a public park during Christmas; we have eliminated all criminals in America, they are now called sick people; we can use a human fetus for medical research, but it’s wrong to use an animal.

We take money from those who work hard for it and give it to those who do not want to work; we all support the Constitution but only when it supports our political ideology; we still have freedom of speech, but only if we are being politically correct; parenting has been replaced with Ritalin and video games; the land of opportunity is now the land of handouts; the similarity between Hurricane Katrina and the Gulf oil spill is neither President did anything to help.

And how do we handle a major crisis today? The government appoints a committee to determine who’s at fault, then threatens them, passes another law, raises our taxes; tells us the problem is solved.

What has happened to the land of the free and home of the brave?


I know I'm preaching to the choir here, but I think this needs to be in every one's mail box.  Maybe it will wake up more  people to the problems we face.  One can only hope!  About the only things that were not mentioned, are the necessities of ousting the United Nations from our political process (and our land), and the dismemberment of the Federal Reserve and all it's associated "little" banks throughout America.  Return to our Constitutional Republican form of government by putting staunch Constitutionalists into our halls of government.
~Lordhawke

Chicago Political Machine up to it's old tricks!

Good Morning Everyone;
I found this at Redstate, and I think we should all be aware of what could happen this election cycle.  This kinda "curled my hair", because as we all know, the Republicans don't or won't get down in the gutter with these criminals!  Read on...

Posted by politicalwoman (Profile)

Tuesday, August 9th at 2:01PM EDT

Recommenders: audax, Change Jar Conservative, RoguePolitics, Remington_Steele

"On July 9, I posted, Reality Check – Obama Can Win Re-election at my other non-Redstate blog. In this post, I mentioned a number of key strengths Obama had that could propel him to victory, the first being, the Chicago machine.

Strength #1: Chicago Machine-style politics — gloves-off, “they bring a knife, we bring a gun” that will prove brutal for any of the Republican candidates.
Despite the latest inane remark by David Plouffe (and I hope he makes more of them), I go back to the Kevin Costner/Sean Connery church scene in The Untouchables, where Costner’s character, Elliott Ness, is trying to recruit the old, street smart, ready to retire cop, in his fight against Al Capone. Sean Connery asks, “what are you prepared to do?” The 2012 campaign is going to be all out war, and the candidate who accepts that fact and responds accordingly will be in the best position to defeat Obama.

In this morning’s Politico appears this article, Obama Plan: Destroy Romney, where Messrs. Axelrod and Giangreco, Obama’s chief campaign strategist and a Democratic consultant, respectively, confirm that Chicago-style machine politics is alive and well. Since Obama will not be able to run on his record barring a miracle, then the only other option is opponent destruction, as in create enough doubt through character assassination, mix in some Tea Party “extremism”, and people will choose the devil that they do know, rather than the devil that they don’t.
When Axelrod and company really get rolling, personally, I have my doubts whether Romney, if he is the nominee, will withstand the onslaught. For every person who says this election is about the economy and jobs, don’t be naive.
We, who read, comment, and post in RedState among other blogs and websites, are actively involved in seeing Obama defeated in 2012 because we understand what his re-election means for the future of America. The debt ceiling crisis and the S&P downgrade woke up another percentage of the American electorate who are starting to pay attention, but there is still a significant number of voters who are easily scared and/or swayed. Axelrod understands this only too well, hence, the targeting of this group and the Tea Party “extremist” rhetoric being ratcheted up, as we have already witnessed with the blame game on last Sunday’s morning talk shows. If this label is allowed to stick, then Obama’s half-way to re-election."


Well, there you have  it, the Chicago Machine is up to their old tricks, and has been all through this President's(sic) term.  We must be vigilant!  ~Lordhawke

Race, War and other Red Herrings

Something I find very sad, is the fact that the so-called minorities and their leaders, are being manipulated by someone, or something that wishes to remain anonymous, who I will "expose" in a moment.

In short, these folks are puppets or "sheeple", being herded towards an objective that is unknown to them. I believe that object is the destruction of America and her sovereignty, along with every other country in the world!

If the manipulators can keep the different "races" at eachother's throats, and oblivious to what is really going on, then they will win the game!

This is such a HUGE manipulation, it seems to be a global phenomenon that trickles down all the way to "the common people".

Whether he knows it or not, Mr. Leal is being manipulated by the organizations he associates with; they, in turn, are being manipulated by globalists; and these same globalists are being manipulated by those who control the financial aspects of the world.

It is this "herd" mentality that causes us to group people into districts, or precincts that are beneficial to special interest groups with an agenda.

Before anyone claims this to be "conspiracy theory", it is not! It is being done openly by politicians (who are being manipulated also) in ALL the "hallowed halls" of government, worldwide!

This manipulation is successful, because we, the people are having our attention directed elsewhere. To wit: the "race" (sic) issue; the various "wars" we are involved in, and etc. The list of "Red Herrings" is almost endless, and it is insidious in its intent!

It becomes IMPERATIVE that "We, the People" must educate ourselves, and become actively involved in our political system, and "root out" those with special agendas, those who are simply power or money hungry, and those who would be the first Dictator of Amerika!

~Lordhawke

U.S. Taxpayers Footing the Bill to Repair Foreign Mosques

First public meeting on redistricting draws opposing views

July 14, 2011 9:42 PM
BY SARAH MUELLER
http://www.oaoa.com/news/first-68576-public-redistricting.html?cb=1310698383

Residents spoke Thursday evening at the first public hearing on the proposed redistricting maps for all five of the local taxing entities, and responses from the handful of speakers were mixed.

Much of the focus aimed at the city’s proposed map, which has changes that would affect around 5,700 people in Odessa city limits.

“I feel we’re lumped all onto the south side,” said Carol Uranga, a member of the local League of United Latin American Citizens.

According to federal guidelines, to ensure every voting district is similar in size and represents minority voters, deviance in population between the smallest and largest district can’t exceed 10 percent.

The Ector County Redistricting Task Force met for the first time in April, and is made up of representatives from Ector County, the Ector County Independent School District, the Ector County Hospital District board, Odessa College and the city of Odessa. They were assisted by Arturo Michel, a partner with the law firm Thompson & Horton, and redistricting expert Leslie Johnston.

The city of Odessa faced the biggest challenge in redistricting efforts out of all the taxing entities. The difference in population between the city’s District 2 (the largest) and District 5 (the smallest) was more than 20 percent and necessitated moving lines in every area because the districts aren’t adjacent.

Art Leal, president of Una Voz Unida of Odessa, said the new lines for city council District 3 violated the Voting Rights Act because he said it reduced the percentage of minority voting-age residents in that district by 20 percent, and suggested making other changes.

Odessa gained almost 9,000 people in the 2010 census count compared to 2000. Districts 1, 3 and 5 would be majority-minority districts with minorities as more than half of the voting population. Ector County would have three majority-minority districts, with two having a more than 50 percent minority voting-age population.

OC, the school district and the hospital district would have five majority-minority populations with four having more than a 50 percent minority voting-age population.

Republican activist and radio talk-show host Jason Moore also spoke at the public hearing. He said that while the Hispanic organizations were claiming the maps were drawn to prevent minorities from voting, nothing is preventing them from voting the way they want.

“The people testifying tonight rarely go to the polls,” Moore said.

District 3 City Councilwoman Barbara Graff said she plans to check voting records in the area north of East 42nd Street that Leal had referenced in his comment to the task force. She said she will encourage every member of her district to vote.

“I personally don’t have any problem with it,” she said of the proposed changes.

Another public hearing is scheduled at 6 p.m. Monday in the Commissioner’s Courtroom at the Ector County Annex on Eighth Street. Maps of the draft plans for each taxing entity are posted on the city and county websites.

IF YOU GO:


What: Redistricting public hearings.
When: 6 p.m., Monday.
Where: Commissioners Courtroom, Ector County Annex, 1010 E. Eighth St.
Call: 498-4100.

Redistricting Maps

 

CANDIDATES FOR FEDERAL & STATE OFFICES

I found a really interesting site that gives all the candidates for federal and state offices for the March 2 primary. I've been clicking on some of the candidates' sites for governor - there's scads of candidates - and I've been surprised by some of the information on the Democrats' sites. Shoot, I thought all Democrats were for open borders. Hell, no. They actually look like they're more informed than Perry or Hutchison, both of whom have played legislative tricks on Americans wanting enforcement of our immigration laws.

Here's the site:

Politics1.com

ON-LINE POLL

I just answered a few questions for this poll. One question asked if I thought Texas was doing good and should continue under Rick Perry or if I thought we were doing good but needed some changes. Another asked me who I would vote for: Perry, Hutchison, or Medina. I answered we needed some changes, and that I would be voting for Medina.

Look at who they recommended as my perfect candidate: (Yuk!)

http://www.texaspoliticalquiz.com/finalPage.php?totalValue=201&page_id=3